House Republicans have introduced a reconciliation bill proposing substantial Medicaid cuts, igniting significant debate over its consequences for millions of Americans. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), these cuts could cause approximately 13.7 million people to lose health insurance coverage by 2034, with some estimates ranging up to 15 million.

Key Provisions of the Bill

The bill includes several stringent measures aimed at tightening Medicaid eligibility and oversight:

• Verification of recipients' home addresses.
• Eligibility checks every six months.
• Prohibiting benefits for deceased individuals and non-citizens.
• Imposing a work requirement on Medicaid recipients, though this is delayed until 2029; some Republican members have criticized the delay, advocating for an earlier implementation possibly by the end of 2026.

Additionally, the bill proposes to bar Medicaid coverage for gender-affirming care for adults and to penalize states that provide coverage to undocumented immigrants by reducing their federal payments.

Financial Impact and Broader Cuts

The proposed Medicaid cuts could total nearly $700 billion over a decade, with some analyses suggesting reductions in federal Medicaid spending of $625 billion to $715 billion. These cuts are part of a broader package that also includes significant reductions to food assistance programs like SNAP, potentially affecting over 42 million Americans.

The bill is projected to increase the national debt by approximately $2.3 to $3.8 trillion over ten years, which could trigger automatic cuts to Medicare amounting to nearly $500 billion starting as early as 2026 due to statutory deficit control mechanisms.

Supporters vs. Critics

Supporters argue that the bill increases Medicaid funding by 24% overall and aims to improve care for seniors, low-income families, and people with disabilities by promoting work and reducing fraud. They claim the reforms will make Medicaid more sustainable and efficient.

Critics contend that the cuts disproportionately harm vulnerable populations, including children, seniors, and the disabled. They argue the bill’s savings mainly fund tax breaks for the wealthy and that the work requirements and other restrictions will lead to widespread loss of coverage and increased hardship. A recent Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll found that 58% of Americans oppose the Medicaid cuts, with only 14% in favor, reflecting broad public concern[Original Query].

State-Level Consequences

States face difficult choices due to reduced federal funding: they may need to raise taxes, cut Medicaid enrollment or benefits, reduce payments to providers, or reallocate funds from other programs such as education and infrastructure. Some states could see Medicaid enrollment drop by 15-32%, intensifying disparities in healthcare access.

Summary

The House GOP’s reconciliation bill marks a significant shift in Medicaid policy with far-reaching implications. While intended to curb federal spending and encourage workforce participation, the bill risks stripping millions of Americans of vital health coverage and triggering cuts to Medicare, sparking fierce controversy and public opposition.