Islamic Republic Close to Collapse in Iran, Civil War Possible After US, Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Sites: Experts

The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing what analysts are describing as its most precarious moment since the 1979 revolution, with a growing risk of state collapse and possible descent into civil war. The warning comes from a new assessment by a UK-based international policy institute, which argues that intensified internal dissent, economic crisis, and the recent destruction of key nuclear sites by the United States and Israel have combined to leave Iran’s ruling clerical establishment weakened and vulnerable.

Mounting Tensions Inside Iran

Iran is in the throes of multiple internal crises. Over the past year, the government has dramatically escalated its use of the death penalty, with the United Nations accusing Tehran of carrying out nearly 900 executions in 2025 alone. Human rights observers warn these executions are being used not only as punishment but as a deliberate tool of intimidation aimed at suppressing widespread dissent.

The regime has struggled to contain public anger in recent years, as protests have erupted repeatedly over issues ranging from women’s rights to corruption and inflation. These demonstrations, often led by younger Iranians born decades after the revolution, challenge both the political authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic itself.

Experts point to an erosion in the government’s ability to manage dissent. In contrast to previous decades, when state security forces used swift and overwhelming force to crush protests, the latest waves of unrest have persisted for longer periods and spread across diverse social groups, encompassing students, labor unions, and middle-class professionals.

Impact of US and Israeli Military Strikes

The report underscores the devastating impact of coordinated strikes carried out earlier this summer by Israel and the United States against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. These targeted attacks destroyed key enrichment facilities and eliminated several major figures within Iran’s nuclear program and security leadership.

For decades, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been both a strategic shield and a political rallying cry for the regime. The sudden loss of this capability not only diminishes Tehran’s regional leverage but also strikes at the symbolic core of its defiance against Western powers.

Military sources indicate that while Iran retains some dispersed enrichment equipment, its program is now set back by years. The strikes also damaged command structures inside Iran, further straining the ability of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to project force abroad and to suppress domestic unrest at home.

A Systemic Crisis for the Islamic Republic

According to analysts, the Iranian regime is now at risk of a systemic breakdown. Economic isolation caused by years of international sanctions had already reduced Iran’s capacity to provide basic services, stabilize its currency, and maintain vital imports. Inflation remains rampant, unemployment is high—particularly among youth—and foreign investment has shrunk to negligible levels.

The collapse of the nuclear program exacerbates this economic decline. Iranian leadership had long banked on nuclear deterrence as a tool to trade relief from sanctions or to exert political pressure in the region. With that mechanism severely weakened, Tehran faces heightened vulnerability.

The study warns that a regime collapse could lead to a chaotic political vacuum. Given Iran’s size, population of nearly 90 million, and its deeply factionalized elite, such a power vacuum could easily spiral into civil war. This prospect is magnified by the existence of armed militias aligned with various clerical, tribal, and ideological factions, each potentially competing for influence over territory and resources.

Historical Context of Iranian State Fragility

Iran has faced moments of existential crisis before. The 1979 revolution toppled the Pahlavi monarchy almost overnight, laying bare how quickly entrenched systems of power can disintegrate under pressure. More recently, the contested 2009 presidential election triggered the so-called Green Movement, in which millions of Iranians filled the streets demanding reform. That wave of unrest was ultimately quashed, but it foreshadowed today’s more persistent and widespread discontent.

Comparisons can also be drawn to the fall of autocratic regimes across the Middle East during the Arab Spring of 2011. In cases such as Libya and Syria, longstanding authoritarian rule gave way not to democratization but to years of destructive internal war. Analysts warn that a similar trajectory could unfold in Iran if the regime collapses suddenly without a viable transitional framework.

Regional Ramifications

The stakes of Iran’s instability extend well beyond its borders. For decades, Tehran has exerted influence through proxy militias and partnerships across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Its ability to fund and direct groups such as Hezbollah and Houthi rebels has made Iran a central power player in the Middle East’s security balance.

Should the Islamic Republic lose control, questions arise over whether these foreign militias will sustain their ties to Tehran or chart new, independent paths of conflict. In Iraq and Syria, where sectarian divisions already run deep, an implosion in Tehran could accelerate fragmentation, potentially reshaping the entire political map of the region.

Neighboring powers are watching with concern. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states have historically viewed Iran as both a rival and a destabilizing force. While some may welcome the weakening of Tehran’s regional grip, all fear the chaos of a civil war spilling over borders or unleashing uncontrolled refugee flows.

Economic Crisis Deepens

Iran’s economy, already battered by decades of sanctions, is teetering under new pressures. The collapse of its nuclear program undermines already slim hopes of negotiating sanction relief that could restore access to international markets. Oil exports, long the backbone of Iran’s economy, remain heavily restricted. Foreign companies remain reluctant to invest, wary of both US penalties and Iran’s volatile political environment.

The Iranian rial continues to depreciate, eroding household purchasing power and fueling public anger. Imported goods, particularly medicine and food staples, have become prohibitively expensive for ordinary families. Hospitals are reporting difficulties sourcing vital treatments, while energy shortages have become common in major cities like Tehran, Mashhad, and Isfahan.

Across the region, comparisons are being drawn between Iran’s crisis and the economic collapses that once engulfed Venezuela and, earlier, Iraq under the weight of sanctions in the 1990s. In each case, ordinary citizens bore the brunt, while ruling elites sought to shield themselves through smuggling, illicit trade, or shrinking access to state resources.

Prospects for Opposition Movements

Despite the intensification of crackdowns, Iran’s opposition movements remain active. Exiled leaders and diaspora groups continue to advocate for democratic reform, while inside the country grassroots movements are growing around demands for women’s rights, workers’ rights, and the dismantling of clerical authoritarianism.

The report suggests there is a real prospect for galvanizing opposition forces if there is international preparation for a post-Islamic Republic transition. However, it warns against allowing the regime to collapse without a coordinated plan, highlighting the dangers of governance vacuums that can enable extremist groups or militia warlords to seize power.

The possibility of the IRGC splintering, with some factions aligning with reformists and others clinging to hardline ideology, adds further uncertainty. Such a scenario could mirror developments seen in post-Saddam Iraq, where fragmentations of power gave rise to prolonged violence and instability.

A Nation at a Crossroads

The future of Iran is hanging in the balance. For the first time in four decades, the Islamic Republic faces a credible threat not only from foreign adversaries but also from within its own population, whose patience has been worn down by repression, poverty, and isolation.

Experts caution that while international strikes have weakened Iran’s nuclear ambitions and diminished its external threat capacity, they may have also accelerated internal destabilization. Unless a clear and inclusive roadmap emerges for political transition, Iran risks descending into widespread conflict with grave consequences for its people and the wider Middle East.

As of now, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s position appears increasingly untenable, and the clerical regime’s grip on power is loosening. Whether Iran’s next chapter is one of peaceful reform or violent disintegration will depend on both internal dynamics among Iran’s competing factions and the strategies adopted by the international community in the critical months ahead.