Rice Prices Double in Japan, Forcing Emergency Government Action as Inflation Squeezes Households

Japan is facing a dramatic surge in rice prices, with costs more than doubling over the past year—a 101.7% increase reported for May—triggering a national crisis and prompting the government to release emergency reserves to stabilize the market. The spike in rice prices marks the largest increase in over half a century and comes amid the 38th consecutive month of inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, with headline inflation at 3.5% and core inflation hitting 3.7% in May, the highest since January 2023.

The crisis is being driven by a combination of factors. A poor harvest in 2023, caused by extreme heat, led to a significant supply shortfall. This was compounded by panic buying after a major earthquake and increased demand from foreign tourists, as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions. While the Japanese rice market is typically shielded from imports by high tariffs, domestic shortages have forced a surge in rice imports despite the costs.

In response, the government has tapped into its emergency rice stockpile for the first time since February, distributing discounted grain directly to retailers in an effort to bring down prices for consumers. The Ministry of Agriculture has also announced plans to overhaul its rice production assessment methods, aiming to use satellite and artificial intelligence technology to better predict yields and prevent future shortages.

The crisis has put significant political pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ahead of key upper house elections next month. Public approval for his administration has dropped to its lowest point since he took office, with many voters citing frustration over the rising cost of living and the government’s handling of the rice shortage.

Separately, the global rice supply chain is under strain. In Ghana, four public officials have been charged with attempting to hijack rice containers at Tema port, underscoring corruption risks in food distribution. Meanwhile, experts warn that climate change—through higher temperatures and erratic monsoons—threatens future rice yields, with sterility risks for rice crops at temperatures above 35°C.

As Japan’s government scrambles to stabilize prices and restore public confidence, the crisis highlights the vulnerability of staple food supplies to climate, market, and geopolitical shocks.