Moldova’s President Warns of Russian Plans to Turn Country into Base Against Ukraine and EU

Rising Fears of Election Interference

Moldovan President Maia Sandu has issued a stark warning that Russia is seeking to transform Moldova into a strategic outpost against Ukraine and the European Union. Speaking shortly before critical national elections, Sandu claimed that Moscow is investing heavily in efforts to sway the vote, highlighting what she described as a broader regional strategy to undermine democracies and destabilize Europe.

Sandu stated that Russia’s intentions go well beyond influencing Moldovan politics. According to her, Russia’s goals include establishing control over Moldova’s government, eventually using Chisinau as a platform against Ukraine and even certain EU member states. She drew parallels with Belarus, where Russian military influence has expanded since the invasion of Ukraine, noting the danger of drones or other military equipment being launched from Moldovan territory in the event of government capture.

A Historical Struggle With Moscow’s Influence

Moldova, a country of just over 2.5 million people, has long found itself at the intersection of East and West. A former Soviet republic, Moldova has grappled with Russian influence for decades, most notably in the breakaway region of Transnistria. This narrow strip of land along the Dniester River has hosted Russian troops since the early 1990s, operating as a frozen conflict zone that Moscow has used to exert pressure on Chisinau.

While Moldova declared independence in 1991, repeated political and economic crises have left the nation vulnerable to external interference. Russia’s use of energy supplies as leverage has been a recurring theme, particularly during winter months when Moldova relies heavily on imported natural gas. Previous Moldovan governments have oscillated between pro-European and pro-Russian orientations, creating fertile ground for disinformation campaigns and external manipulation of elections.

Sandu’s comments mark one of the strongest warnings yet from a Moldovan leader, underscoring a sense of urgency amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. Observers note that Moldova’s proximity to the conflict makes it an attractive target in Russia’s push to extend its sphere of influence and counter Western support for Kyiv.

Election Stakes and Moscow’s Tactics

With parliamentary and presidential elections approaching, Sandu warned that Russia is deploying significant financial and logistical resources to sway the outcome in its favor. She pointed to evidence of Russian funding streams directed at sympathetic parties and politicians, as well as a surge of disinformation campaigns tailored to Moldovan voters.

Pro-Russian political groups have historically held strong influence in Moldova, appealing to rural voters and older generations who maintain cultural and linguistic ties to Russia. Analysts say that any major electoral gains by these factions could reshape Moldova’s foreign policy trajectory, slowing or even halting the country’s path toward the European Union.

Election observers in Moldova have previously documented irregularities linked to external actors. Past investigations revealed cases of vote buying, foreign money funneled into political campaigns, and an extensive use of media outlets tied to Moscow in shaping public opinion. Sandu’s warning suggests that these activities are intensifying as the geopolitical stakes rise.

Moldova’s European Aspirations Under Pressure

Moldova’s government has been pursuing EU membership with renewed vigor since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The European Council granted Moldova candidate status in June 2022, a historic step toward integration with the EU.

Public support for European integration has been steadily growing, though the country remains divided. While younger urban residents largely favor moving closer to Brussels, some regions—particularly those with large Russian-speaking populations—remain skeptical or resistant. This division provides fertile ground for Russia to amplify domestic tensions.

Sandu framed Moldova’s trajectory as tightly linked to the broader European security architecture, warning that if Russia succeeds in capturing its political system, the consequences would extend far beyond her country’s borders. She emphasized that Moscow’s ultimate objective is to weaken the EU by destabilizing vulnerable neighboring countries.

Potential Security Risks for the Region

One of the most alarming aspects of Sandu’s statement was her warning that Moldova could be used as a staging ground for military activities against Ukraine and Europe. She suggested that, in the event of a Russian-aligned government in Chisinau, Moldova could serve as a drone launch site, mirroring Belarus’s role in supporting Moscow’s war efforts.

Experts note that Moldova’s geography makes it strategically significant. The country borders Ukraine to the east and Romania, an EU and NATO member, to the west. Any Russian foothold in Moldova would complicate NATO’s eastern flank and further endanger Ukraine’s already pressured southwestern defenses near Odesa.

Security analysts have also raised concerns about Russia training operatives within Moldova for possible actions inside the EU. This aligns with Sandu’s warning of illegal activities being orchestrated from Moldovan territory, including sabotage or hybrid operations targeting European infrastructure and institutions.

The Economic Impact of Russian Pressure

Alongside political challenges, Moldova continues to face economic strain linked to regional instability. The war in Ukraine severely disrupted trade routes, energy imports, and agricultural markets, placing additional pressure on an already fragile economy.

Russia’s leverage over Moldova’s energy supplies has historically given Moscow an effective means of political coercion. Though Moldova has made progress in diversifying energy imports, including purchasing electricity from Romania and accessing European gas networks, vulnerability remains a pressing concern.

Inflation pressures and rising living costs have created social discontent, which Moscow-backed actors often exploit. Disinformation campaigns have focused on blaming the Moldovan government’s pro-European policies for economic difficulties, even as analysts point to external shocks caused by the war.

The success of Moldova’s reform agenda—and its attractiveness for foreign investment—relies heavily on political stability. Any disruption caused by external interference could stall progress and deepen existing economic inequalities.

Comparisons to Other Regional Flashpoints

The Moldovan situation echoes broader patterns across Eastern Europe, where Russia has sought to influence political outcomes and maintain spheres of influence. Belarus has already served as a key example, with its government allowing Russian forces to operate freely during the invasion of Ukraine.

In the Western Balkans, Moscow has also attempted to exert influence through political proxies, financial support, and information campaigns, particularly in countries with ongoing ethnic or territorial disputes. Comparisons are frequently drawn between Moldova’s challenges and those facing Georgia, another candidate for EU accession that has dealt with Russian-backed separatist regions since the early 1990s.

Experts stress that the stakes in Moldova are high not only for its citizens but also for the entire continent. If Russia entrenches itself politically or militarily in Moldova, the balance of power in Eastern Europe could shift significantly against the EU and NATO.

Public Sentiment and National Resilience

Despite the challenges, Moldova’s civil society has played a crucial role in supporting democratic institutions and resisting external interference. Large-scale protests have taken place both in favor of and against deeper EU integration, reflecting the vibrant, if polarized, nature of public discourse.

Sandu has repeatedly urged Moldovans to remain vigilant against manipulation, calling on citizens to protect the democratic process and the country’s sovereignty. She emphasized that while the threats are serious, Moldova’s future ultimately depends on the decisions of its people in the upcoming elections.

The stakes are clear: if citizens choose leaders committed to reform and European integration, Moldova stands a chance of solidifying its place within the European family and shielding itself from undue influence. If the opposite occurs, it risks becoming another frontline state in a deepening conflict stretching across Eastern Europe.

Looking Ahead

As Moldova braces for pivotal elections, the coming months may prove decisive for the nation’s trajectory. The warnings issued by Sandu highlight not only the scale of Russia’s ambitions but also the fragility of countries caught between geopolitical fault lines.

International partners are closely watching the developments in Chisinau, aware that Moldova sits at a crossroads where democracy, security, and sovereignty are being tested. For Moldova, the choice is not only about its own future but also about whether Europe can withstand one of the gravest challenges to its stability since the end of the Cold War.