Apple Stock Struggles Amid AI Uncertainty, Antitrust Lawsuits, and Tariff Pressures

CUPERTINO, CA – June 30, 2025 – Apple Inc. (AAPL) closed at $201.08 today, marking a marginal 0.04% gain, but the tech giant’s stock remains down 17.5% year-to-date, significantly underperforming its peers in the technology sector. The decline is attributed to a convergence of challenges, including concerns over the upcoming iPhone 17, regulatory penalties, and strategic shifts in artificial intelligence.

Weaker iPhone 17 Outlook and Tariff-Driven Price Hikes

Analysts have revised down expectations for iPhone 17 sales, citing both global smartphone market stagnation and potential price increases. Counterpoint Research now forecasts just 1.9% year-over-year growth in global smartphone shipments for 2025, down from an earlier 4.2%, as U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are expected to drive up costs for Apple and, in turn, consumers. The company is reportedly preparing to raise iPhone 17 prices to offset these tariff-related expenses, a move that could further dampen demand in key markets like North America and China.

Regulatory and Legal Headwinds

Apple’s regulatory troubles have intensified in both the U.S. and Europe. The company recently agreed to a €500 million fine from the European Union for restricting developers’ payment options, prompting changes to its App Store policies to allow alternative payment methods for in-app purchases in the EU. In the U.S., Apple faces a revived class action lawsuit alleging it maintains an illegal monopoly by requiring users to use iCloud for device backups, with a judge allowing the case to proceed after new evidence was presented.

Additionally, Apple has settled a $490 million securities fraud lawsuit with investors who alleged that CEO Tim Cook made misleading statements about iPhone demand in China in 2018. The settlement, which is pending final court approval, is among the largest of its kind in California’s Northern District.

AI Strategy Under Scrutiny

Apple’s approach to artificial intelligence has drawn mixed reactions from investors and industry analysts. After a lackluster response to its AI announcements at WWDC 2025, where new features failed to meet expectations, Apple’s stock dropped 1.5%. The company is now in talks with AI leaders Anthropic and OpenAI to potentially power a revamped Siri, a move that could sideline Apple’s in-house AI efforts. While this partnership could accelerate Apple’s AI capabilities, it has also raised concerns that the company is lagging behind competitors like Google and Microsoft in the AI race.

Analyst Outlook Remains Divided

Despite these headwinds, some analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s long-term prospects. The company still holds 78 Buy ratings, with an average 12-month price target of $226.54—suggesting a potential 29% upside from its previous all-time high. However, others have trimmed their targets, citing persistent weaknesses in iPhone and services revenue.

As Apple navigates regulatory scrutiny, shifting AI strategies, and tariff-induced cost pressures, the company’s ability to innovate and adapt will be closely watched by investors and industry observers in the months ahead.