Coffee Prices Drop Sharply as Improved Harvest Prospects in Brazil and Vietnam Boost Global Supply

Global coffee prices have experienced a significant decline, driven by optimism over robust harvests in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s leading coffee producers. Wholesale Arabica coffee prices, which recently soared to record highs above $4 per pound, have now fallen to just under $3 per pound. This sharp drop is attributed to improved weather conditions and positive crop outlooks, which have eased previous concerns about supply shortages.

In Brazil, the 2025/26 coffee harvest is progressing steadily. As of mid-June, 35% of the harvest was complete, aligning with the five-year average, according to market analysts Safras & Mercado. Heavy rainfall in key growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais, has alleviated earlier dryness concerns and is expected to support higher yields. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Brazil’s coffee production will rise by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags for the upcoming season, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply.

Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, is also on track for a strong harvest. The USDA projects a 6.9% increase in Vietnam’s coffee output, reaching 31 million bags for the 2025/26 season. Favorable growing conditions in the Central Highlands have supported this positive outlook, despite earlier drought-related setbacks that reduced the previous year’s crop by 20%.

On the international markets, robusta coffee futures for July 2025 delivery dropped 3.64% to $3,887 per ton, with September contracts hitting a 13-month low at $3,737 per ton. Arabica prices in New York also fell by 2.25% to 315.05 cents per pound, marking their lowest level in over five months.

The price declines are expected to benefit consumers and businesses, potentially leading to more stable or even lower retail coffee prices in the coming months. The improved harvest prospects in Brazil and Vietnam are easing fears of supply shortages that had previously driven prices to historic highs.