Tesla Stock Faces Turbulence as Robotaxi Launch Fails to Offset Delivery Concerns
June 30, 2025 – Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) shares are under pressure as mixed investor sentiment follows the company’s high-profile robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas. The stock fell 1% in premarket trading Monday, extending a 0.6% decline from Friday, and has dropped nearly 20% year-to-date—significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which is up 5% in the same period.
The muted market reaction comes despite Tesla’s first fully autonomous Model Y delivery ahead of schedule, a milestone some investors hoped would bolster confidence in the company’s future. Wall Street, however, remains focused on immediate challenges, particularly declining vehicle deliveries and persistent demand concerns.
Tesla is expected to report second-quarter deliveries of around 355,000 to 386,000 vehicles on Wednesday—a 13% to 20% year-over-year decline from the 444,000 delivered in Q2 2024. This marks a continuation of a downward trend, as first-quarter deliveries had already fallen 13% compared to the previous year. The shortfall is attributed to increased competition, a maturing product lineup, and potential reductions in electric vehicle tax credits, especially as a GOP spending bill threatens to eliminate these incentives in the U.S..
Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s robotaxi initiative is seen as a potential long-term growth driver. The new service, which relies on Tesla’s proprietary camera-only technology rather than more expensive lidar or radar systems, could disrupt the urban mobility market if successfully scaled. Analysts estimate the autonomous ride-hailing sector could generate between $115 billion and $700 billion in revenue by 2040, but acknowledge that these projections offer little solace to investors concerned with Tesla’s current operational struggles.
Analyst ratings for Tesla remain divided: 24 brokerages rate TSLA as a buy, 19 as hold, and 11 as sell. Benchmark recently raised its price target to $475, citing optimism around the robotaxi rollout, while others warn that Tesla’s core automotive business is facing structural challenges and possible overvaluation.
Institutional investors have shown mixed signals. While some major funds have increased their stakes in Tesla, insider selling remains elevated, with senior executives offloading shares worth millions in recent months.
Tesla’s robust cash reserves, estimated at $33–35 billion, provide a financial cushion and the flexibility to invest in future innovations, including the robotaxi program. However, the company’s near-term outlook hinges on its ability to stabilize deliveries and navigate regulatory and market headwinds.
Tesla’s next earnings report, due after the delivery numbers, is expected to reflect these pressures, with consensus estimates for earnings per share at $0.44—down from $0.52 a year ago and well below earlier 2025 projections.
As Tesla pivots toward autonomous vehicle technology, the company’s ability to execute on its robotaxi ambitions and adapt to a shifting automotive landscape will be critical in determining its future market position. For now, investors remain cautious as the company faces a pivotal moment between innovation promise and operational reality.